Recently, several friends asked: how long can the mask business be prosperous in the current epidemic situation? They are engaged in the production of melt-blown fabrics, some sell mask machines, some make key parts for automated mask production lines, and some do mask trade.
I remember when my friend talked about his hometown of Xiantao in Hubei in early March, almost everyone was involved in mask production. An old mask production machine used to sell hundreds of dollars of waste products before the epidemic. No one cares about it. Now the master who received the waste products sells for 20,000 yuan, and it is fired to 200,000 famous coins. This is the magic of the market economy.
So how long can such a booming mask business last? Investing in this production boom, on the one hand, can certainly contribute to the eradication of the epidemic. However, in consideration of economic benefits, it is still necessary to make good calculations in advance. It's terrible to pick up the player.
Let's ask about the DataFocus crystal ball.
The most troublesome part of the new crown epidemic is its three-threat pose. For an individual, it may be infected by it, or it may be seriously ill and cause death; for society, there may be an outbreak. Although the virus is far less deadly than severe infectious diseases like Ebola, its threat to society is much higher than the former. Judging from the latest research results, the R0 value of the virus is as high as 3-5, and there are 30%-70% of asymptomatic infected persons, which once again proves that the deterrent effect of the new crown epidemic is much higher than other infectious diseases. It is almost certain that Social isolation, closed management, and case tracking and tracing will become the standard three axes for responding to the epidemic. It can be predicted that as long as the epidemic still exists, masks will still be a necessity for the whole society.
European and American Epidemic Trends
From these data, it can be seen that countries outside China and East Asia, especially Europe and the United States, are basically still in a fast-growing channel. Combined with the policies of corresponding countries, we can find that the United States has not been completely isolated and blocked, and President Trump has also been committed to restoring the economy. Therefore, the epidemic in the United States will also have a long-term moderate growth process, which will Continue to strengthen the isolation consensus formed by the whole society, that is, the demand for masks will continue to grow until the country begins to implement effective social isolation policies, and the demand for masks will rise to the peak. At that time, the new mask capacity will not be Sensible. We anticipate that the country will have at least a 2-3 month capacity gap window.
Similarly, European countries, especially the United Kingdom, a country known for appeasement during World War II, will eventually abandon the national immunization strategy and turn to the correct standard of anti-epidemic operations, which will continue to expand the demand for masks in the future. In other European countries, such as Italy, Germany, and France, the demand will basically be synchronized.